Social Blocs, Political Cleavages and Institutional Change in Switzerland: a Neorealist Approach

Author

Celâl Güney

1 Appendix

Figure 1.1: Party identification

Figure 1.2: Proportions of Swiss citizen leaning for the left, the right or neither left or right: 1988-2016

Figure 1.3: Proportions of Swiss citizen supporting state intervention, equal rights & chances for foreigners, and redistribution: 1993-2016
Table 1.1: Binary logit regressions: party support (log-odds)
PS Greens No party
(Intercept) −1.509*** −3.693*** 0.222**
(0.101) (0.265) (0.069)
incomefhigh −1.054*** −1.407* −0.251*
(0.181) (0.568) (0.104)
incomefmiddle_high −0.309** −0.555+ −0.289***
(0.113) (0.313) (0.077)
incomefmiddle_low −0.012 −0.361 −0.082
(0.102) (0.278) (0.070)
educationfcomp_school −0.083 −1.244*** 0.202**
(0.103) (0.367) (0.068)
educationfhigher_voctraining 0.507*** 0.249 −0.412***
(0.137) (0.335) (0.102)
educationfmaturity −0.345 1.296** −0.629***
(0.228) (0.398) (0.163)
educationfUniversity −0.156 1.302** −0.651***
(0.261) (0.406) (0.188)
annee_cat(1986,1991] −0.919*** 0.327 0.287**
(0.137) (0.309) (0.092)
annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.601*** 0.211 0.119
(0.120) (0.295) (0.083)
annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.940*** −1.191** 0.248**
(0.124) (0.372) (0.082)
annee_cat(2001,2006] −0.667*** −0.295 −0.118
(0.118) (0.305) (0.082)
annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.751*** 0.148 −0.237*
(0.143) (0.319) (0.101)
annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.645*** −0.169 −0.355***
(0.143) (0.350) (0.103)
genderfemale 0.124*** 0.382*** 0.259***
(0.021) (0.045) (0.016)
age_cat[30,45) 0.227*** 0.132* −0.305***
(0.035) (0.067) (0.025)
age_cat[45,65) 0.278*** −0.110 −0.452***
(0.036) (0.071) (0.026)
age_cat[65,99] 0.173*** −0.672*** −0.640***
(0.039) (0.090) (0.028)
religionAthée 0.461*** 0.791*** 0.074**
(0.033) (0.062) (0.027)
religionAutre 0.293*** 0.204 0.140**
(0.060) (0.130) (0.046)
religionCatholique chrétien 0.035 −0.034 0.189***
(0.076) (0.178) (0.057)
religionProtestant 0.267*** 0.186*** 0.001
(0.024) (0.053) (0.017)
regionLSuisse italienne −0.110* −0.710*** −0.007
(0.048) (0.128) (0.034)
regionLSuisse romande 0.177*** 0.057 0.314***
(0.024) (0.051) (0.018)
married −0.015 −0.217*** −0.082***
(0.024) (0.051) (0.018)
house_ownership −0.311*** −0.173*** −0.182***
(0.023) (0.050) (0.017)
incomefhigh × educationfcomp_school 0.054 0.754+ 0.209+
(0.213) (0.426) (0.118)
incomefmiddle_high × educationfcomp_school 0.089 0.478+ −0.094
(0.106) (0.271) (0.068)
incomefmiddle_low × educationfcomp_school 0.092 0.274 −0.069
(0.093) (0.246) (0.059)
incomefhigh × educationfhigher_voctraining −0.245 −0.059 0.107
(0.156) (0.332) (0.114)
incomefmiddle_high × educationfhigher_voctraining −0.096 −0.254 0.260**
(0.125) (0.271) (0.095)
incomefmiddle_low × educationfhigher_voctraining −0.148 −0.029 0.132
(0.132) (0.277) (0.099)
incomefhigh × educationfmaturity 0.090 −0.342 0.307*
(0.155) (0.294) (0.120)
incomefmiddle_high × educationfmaturity −0.066 −0.242 0.222*
(0.132) (0.234) (0.104)
incomefmiddle_low × educationfmaturity −0.014 −0.443+ 0.166
(0.137) (0.245) (0.108)
incomefhigh × educationfUniversity −0.047 −0.164 0.219*
(0.118) (0.239) (0.093)
incomefmiddle_high × educationfUniversity −0.170 0.021 0.265**
(0.104) (0.199) (0.084)
incomefmiddle_low × educationfUniversity −0.009 0.074 0.091
(0.112) (0.210) (0.093)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.437+ 0.744 −0.058
(0.249) (0.645) (0.143)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.228 0.483 −0.105
(0.156) (0.360) (0.105)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.104 0.361 0.005
(0.139) (0.323) (0.095)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(1991,1996] 0.901*** 0.898 −0.204
(0.208) (0.604) (0.130)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(1991,1996] 0.262+ 0.350 0.102
(0.136) (0.343) (0.094)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.165 0.264 0.111
(0.126) (0.311) (0.087)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(1996,2001] 1.206*** 1.404* −0.064
(0.205) (0.651) (0.124)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(1996,2001] 0.492*** 0.803* 0.173+
(0.137) (0.409) (0.092)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(1996,2001] 0.038 0.817* 0.101
(0.130) (0.390) (0.086)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(2001,2006] 1.099*** 1.429* 0.031
(0.197) (0.589) (0.121)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(2001,2006] 0.534*** 0.565 0.191*
(0.131) (0.347) (0.092)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(2001,2006] 0.114 0.430 0.074
(0.124) (0.322) (0.086)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(2006,2011] 0.936*** 1.355* −0.228+
(0.214) (0.592) (0.136)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(2006,2011] 0.426** 0.485 −0.172
(0.154) (0.356) (0.110)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(2006,2011] 0.172 0.246 −0.022
(0.154) (0.340) (0.109)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(2011,2016] 1.100*** 1.305* −0.264+
(0.212) (0.609) (0.136)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(2011,2016] 0.715*** 0.397 −0.462***
(0.153) (0.381) (0.111)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(2011,2016] 0.200 0.193 −0.197+
(0.152) (0.370) (0.110)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.145 0.657+ −0.137+
(0.115) (0.365) (0.076)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.011 0.362 −0.275+
(0.211) (0.393) (0.152)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.772*** −0.704+ −0.018
(0.222) (0.391) (0.152)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.869** −0.757+ −0.118
(0.272) (0.418) (0.194)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.114 0.849* 0.002
(0.114) (0.368) (0.074)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.175 0.299 −0.097
(0.139) (0.330) (0.099)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(1991,1996] 0.919*** −0.296 −0.039
(0.216) (0.386) (0.152)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(1991,1996] 0.817** −0.594 0.002
(0.260) (0.406) (0.185)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.390** 0.217 0.136+
(0.124) (0.494) (0.075)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.021 0.474 −0.179*
(0.125) (0.359) (0.089)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(1996,2001] 0.985*** −0.242 0.083
(0.220) (0.433) (0.155)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(1996,2001] 0.782** −0.302 −0.148
(0.257) (0.420) (0.182)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(2001,2006] −0.322** 0.727+ 0.179*
(0.116) (0.393) (0.075)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(2001,2006] −0.037 0.319 −0.100
(0.119) (0.325) (0.089)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(2001,2006] 1.012*** −0.246 −0.023
(0.215) (0.395) (0.153)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(2001,2006] 0.884*** −0.189 −0.110
(0.254) (0.397) (0.181)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.262 1.285** 0.071
(0.168) (0.416) (0.106)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.117 0.433 0.056
(0.135) (0.328) (0.101)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(2006,2011] 0.821*** −0.155 0.080
(0.227) (0.401) (0.163)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(2006,2011] 0.894*** −0.241 −0.040
(0.258) (0.402) (0.184)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.314+ 1.135* 0.284**
(0.164) (0.476) (0.109)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.316* 0.403 0.080
(0.130) (0.351) (0.101)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(2011,2016] 0.660** −0.346 0.251
(0.219) (0.414) (0.157)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(2011,2016] 0.889*** −0.212 0.076
(0.256) (0.410) (0.184)
Num.Obs. 68501 68501 75456
AIC 60477.9 18126.4 96941.1
BIC 61208.6 18857.2 97679.6
Log.Lik. −30158.935 −8983.191 −48390.555
RMSE 0.37 0.17 0.47
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
Table 1.2: Binary logit regressions: party support (log-odds)
PRD-PLR PDC/PCS UDC
(Intercept) −2.489*** −1.364*** −2.501***
(0.137) (0.132) (0.151)
incomefhigh 1.262*** 0.267 −0.008
(0.165) (0.179) (0.209)
incomefmiddle_high 0.969*** 0.068 −0.033
(0.142) (0.143) (0.165)
incomefmiddle_low 0.382** 0.005 0.023
(0.139) (0.133) (0.153)
educationfcomp_school 0.129 0.034 0.012
(0.130) (0.124) (0.135)
educationfhigher_voctraining 0.301 −0.344 −0.672**
(0.189) (0.211) (0.212)
educationfmaturity 0.442+ −0.420 −1.473**
(0.241) (0.312) (0.461)
educationfUniversity −0.014 −0.306 −1.505*
(0.287) (0.333) (0.607)
annee_cat(1986,1991] −0.698*** −0.619*** −0.670**
(0.187) (0.171) (0.228)
annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.417** −0.737*** −0.064
(0.161) (0.159) (0.182)
annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.668*** −0.970*** 0.171
(0.165) (0.160) (0.172)
annee_cat(2001,2006] −0.575*** −1.039*** 0.965***
(0.164) (0.164) (0.161)
annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.316+ −0.597** 0.947***
(0.189) (0.188) (0.185)
annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.281 −1.132*** 1.267***
(0.185) (0.200) (0.183)
genderfemale −0.242*** −0.149*** −0.550***
(0.025) (0.030) (0.027)
age_cat[30,45) 0.044 0.166** 0.126**
(0.044) (0.054) (0.048)
age_cat[45,65) 0.123** 0.321*** 0.201***
(0.044) (0.054) (0.048)
age_cat[65,99] 0.539*** 0.726*** 0.128*
(0.046) (0.056) (0.051)
religionAthée −0.299*** −1.906*** 0.034
(0.047) (0.077) (0.048)
religionAutre −0.452*** −1.604*** 0.155+
(0.092) (0.124) (0.083)
religionCatholique chrétien −0.060 −0.329*** 0.213*
(0.086) (0.091) (0.091)
religionProtestant 0.269*** −1.978*** 0.487***
(0.027) (0.039) (0.029)
regionLSuisse italienne 0.598*** −0.205*** −0.779***
(0.047) (0.054) (0.062)
regionLSuisse romande −0.146*** −0.325*** −1.225***
(0.031) (0.036) (0.042)
married 0.035 0.154*** 0.205***
(0.029) (0.035) (0.032)
house_ownership 0.248*** 0.422*** 0.415***
(0.026) (0.031) (0.028)
incomefhigh × educationfcomp_school −0.324+ −0.173 0.113
(0.196) (0.220) (0.199)
incomefmiddle_high × educationfcomp_school −0.276* 0.001 0.224+
(0.130) (0.123) (0.120)
incomefmiddle_low × educationfcomp_school −0.190 0.009 0.083
(0.120) (0.110) (0.109)
incomefhigh × educationfhigher_voctraining 0.298 0.161 0.080
(0.193) (0.224) (0.190)
incomefmiddle_high × educationfhigher_voctraining 0.063 0.029 0.067
(0.180) (0.195) (0.166)
incomefmiddle_low × educationfhigher_voctraining 0.140 0.124 0.203
(0.190) (0.206) (0.177)
incomefhigh × educationfmaturity −0.151 0.037 −0.331
(0.193) (0.247) (0.240)
incomefmiddle_high × educationfmaturity −0.248 0.119 0.173
(0.181) (0.215) (0.210)
incomefmiddle_low × educationfmaturity −0.113 0.094 0.128
(0.191) (0.225) (0.224)
incomefhigh × educationfUniversity −0.072 0.341+ −0.246
(0.153) (0.199) (0.174)
incomefmiddle_high × educationfUniversity −0.250+ 0.210 0.017
(0.146) (0.185) (0.163)
incomefmiddle_low × educationfUniversity −0.175 0.053 0.031
(0.161) (0.206) (0.182)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.019 −0.351 0.684*
(0.228) (0.250) (0.305)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.161 −0.037 0.407
(0.196) (0.191) (0.250)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.075 −0.053 −0.004
(0.191) (0.175) (0.237)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.128 −0.234 −0.158
(0.199) (0.231) (0.265)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.352* 0.008 −0.233
(0.171) (0.176) (0.205)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.034 −0.046 −0.154
(0.168) (0.165) (0.193)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.390+ −0.462* −0.155
(0.202) (0.228) (0.245)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.636*** −0.093 −0.171
(0.175) (0.174) (0.191)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.268 −0.195 −0.076
(0.174) (0.168) (0.181)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(2001,2006] −0.498* −0.434+ −0.332
(0.196) (0.224) (0.228)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(2001,2006] −0.581*** −0.126 −0.419*
(0.173) (0.179) (0.179)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(2001,2006] −0.294+ −0.042 −0.317+
(0.173) (0.172) (0.169)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.337 −0.485* −0.368
(0.218) (0.241) (0.248)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.312 −0.266 −0.110
(0.197) (0.201) (0.202)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.181 −0.330 −0.107
(0.204) (0.204) (0.199)
incomefhigh × annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.325 −0.105 −0.640**
(0.213) (0.248) (0.245)
incomefmiddle_high × annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.225 0.400+ −0.284
(0.191) (0.211) (0.199)
incomefmiddle_low × annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.078 0.379+ −0.264
(0.196) (0.210) (0.194)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.025 0.120 −0.155
(0.134) (0.131) (0.168)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.075 0.339 −0.366
(0.213) (0.284) (0.448)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(1986,1991] −0.091 0.633* 0.920*
(0.205) (0.273) (0.450)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(1986,1991] 0.459 −0.072 0.343
(0.286) (0.343) (0.653)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.127 0.146 −0.277+
(0.134) (0.133) (0.159)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.209 0.056 0.769***
(0.148) (0.199) (0.202)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(1991,1996] −0.077 0.371 0.799+
(0.203) (0.277) (0.449)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(1991,1996] 0.647* 0.017 0.623
(0.271) (0.318) (0.612)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.218 0.036 −0.189
(0.151) (0.141) (0.146)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.180 0.453** 0.400*
(0.145) (0.175) (0.189)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(1996,2001] −0.230 0.191 0.787+
(0.226) (0.297) (0.454)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(1996,2001] 0.783** 0.216 0.957
(0.269) (0.310) (0.599)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(2001,2006] −0.391* −0.093 −0.031
(0.156) (0.147) (0.134)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(2001,2006] −0.109 0.280 0.341+
(0.137) (0.177) (0.178)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(2001,2006] 0.196 0.276 0.601
(0.207) (0.291) (0.441)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(2001,2006] 0.691** 0.184 0.788
(0.266) (0.306) (0.595)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.260 −0.053 −0.090
(0.190) (0.189) (0.172)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.650*** 0.143 0.337+
(0.150) (0.190) (0.185)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(2006,2011] −0.148 0.252 0.959*
(0.214) (0.295) (0.442)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(2006,2011] 0.221 0.088 0.707
(0.268) (0.308) (0.597)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.243 0.401* −0.066
(0.184) (0.179) (0.172)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.556*** 0.231 0.440*
(0.138) (0.177) (0.180)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat(2011,2016] −0.047 0.396 1.247**
(0.202) (0.280) (0.434)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat(2011,2016] 0.074 0.079 0.818
(0.266) (0.305) (0.595)
Num.Obs. 68501 68501 68501
AIC 46836.1 34929.2 41848.2
BIC 47566.8 35660.0 42579.0
Log.Lik. −23338.037 −17384.620 −20844.110
RMSE 0.31 0.27 0.30
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
Table 1.3: Binary logit regressions: political leaning (log-odds)
Left Right No leaning
(Intercept) −0.946*** −1.231*** −0.070
(0.116) (0.125) (0.106)
income[3k,5k] −0.238+ 0.256+ 0.006
(0.129) (0.136) (0.117)
income[5k,7k] −0.003 0.151 −0.094
(0.133) (0.143) (0.123)
income[7k,9k] −0.014 0.368* −0.259+
(0.150) (0.159) (0.143)
incomemore_9k −0.068 0.540*** −0.380*
(0.157) (0.162) (0.151)
educationfcomp_school −0.258+ 0.238 −0.003
(0.150) (0.145) (0.125)
educationfhigher_voctraining 0.370* 0.081 −0.368*
(0.160) (0.169) (0.148)
educationfmaturity 0.975*** 0.090 −1.049***
(0.185) (0.211) (0.197)
educationfUniversity 0.908*** 0.070 −1.019***
(0.142) (0.157) (0.151)
annee_cat[1996,2000) −0.245+ 0.079 0.127
(0.133) (0.141) (0.120)
annee_cat[2000,2004) −0.493*** 0.102 0.298*
(0.135) (0.142) (0.120)
annee_cat[2004,2008) −0.146 0.204 −0.044
(0.134) (0.144) (0.123)
annee_cat[2008,2012) −0.468** 0.275+ 0.158
(0.155) (0.161) (0.139)
annee_cat[2012,2016] −0.335* 0.490** −0.099
(0.147) (0.151) (0.133)
genderfemale 0.230*** −0.576*** 0.290***
(0.022) (0.022) (0.020)
age_cat[30,45) 0.074* −0.077* −0.002
(0.036) (0.039) (0.035)
age_cat[45,65) 0.008 −0.111** 0.090*
(0.037) (0.039) (0.035)
age_cat[65,99] −0.465*** 0.130** 0.248***
(0.041) (0.041) (0.038)
religionAthée 0.610*** −0.165*** −0.475***
(0.032) (0.036) (0.033)
religionAutre 0.208*** 0.015 −0.199***
(0.062) (0.065) (0.060)
religionCatholique chrétien 0.008 0.035 −0.034
(0.067) (0.066) (0.062)
religionProtestant 0.096*** 0.135*** −0.194***
(0.024) (0.024) (0.022)
regionLSuisse italienne −0.102* 0.030 0.049
(0.044) (0.042) (0.039)
regionLSuisse romande 0.355*** −0.003 −0.331***
(0.025) (0.026) (0.025)
married −0.152*** 0.107*** 0.044+
(0.025) (0.026) (0.024)
house_ownership −0.265*** 0.280*** −0.010
(0.023) (0.023) (0.021)
income[3k,5k] × educationfcomp_school 0.091 −0.213* 0.100
(0.114) (0.104) (0.091)
income[5k,7k] × educationfcomp_school −0.051 −0.071 0.105
(0.132) (0.121) (0.106)
income[7k,9k] × educationfcomp_school 0.303+ −0.241 −0.015
(0.173) (0.170) (0.151)
incomemore_9k × educationfcomp_school −0.056 −0.409* 0.399*
(0.223) (0.198) (0.179)
income[3k,5k] × educationfhigher_voctraining −0.180 0.055 0.102
(0.139) (0.147) (0.126)
income[5k,7k] × educationfhigher_voctraining −0.138 0.068 0.046
(0.135) (0.142) (0.123)
income[7k,9k] × educationfhigher_voctraining −0.180 −0.005 0.133
(0.143) (0.151) (0.131)
incomemore_9k × educationfhigher_voctraining −0.290+ 0.038 0.197
(0.151) (0.155) (0.137)
income[3k,5k] × educationfmaturity −0.158 −0.230 0.312*
(0.150) (0.171) (0.148)
income[5k,7k] × educationfmaturity −0.231 −0.117 0.285*
(0.145) (0.164) (0.144)
income[7k,9k] × educationfmaturity −0.066 −0.216 0.183
(0.152) (0.171) (0.152)
incomemore_9k × educationfmaturity −0.106 −0.185 0.212
(0.156) (0.172) (0.156)
income[3k,5k] × educationfUniversity −0.009 −0.061 0.076
(0.113) (0.126) (0.113)
income[5k,7k] × educationfUniversity −0.165 −0.014 0.180+
(0.107) (0.119) (0.106)
income[7k,9k] × educationfUniversity −0.134 −0.031 0.133
(0.111) (0.122) (0.110)
incomemore_9k × educationfUniversity −0.215+ 0.110 0.082
(0.113) (0.122) (0.111)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.210 −0.186 −0.035
(0.150) (0.156) (0.134)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[1996,2000) −0.018 0.005 0.008
(0.152) (0.162) (0.140)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.002 −0.206 0.178
(0.171) (0.180) (0.162)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.106 −0.197 0.081
(0.181) (0.186) (0.174)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.411** −0.271+ −0.127
(0.151) (0.156) (0.134)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.178 −0.139 −0.037
(0.154) (0.163) (0.140)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.294+ −0.261 −0.016
(0.171) (0.179) (0.160)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.295+ −0.265 0.012
(0.178) (0.183) (0.169)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.206 −0.063 −0.120
(0.151) (0.159) (0.137)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.090 −0.013 −0.066
(0.154) (0.165) (0.142)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.099 −0.124 0.029
(0.169) (0.180) (0.162)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.004 0.024 −0.003
(0.175) (0.182) (0.170)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.331+ −0.070 −0.234
(0.175) (0.179) (0.156)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.141 0.157 −0.261+
(0.173) (0.180) (0.158)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.252 −0.033 −0.197
(0.185) (0.193) (0.175)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.262 −0.206 −0.040
(0.190) (0.196) (0.182)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.355* −0.084 −0.254+
(0.164) (0.166) (0.148)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.254 0.135 −0.375*
(0.164) (0.170) (0.151)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.320+ −0.105 −0.232
(0.178) (0.184) (0.170)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.284 −0.252 −0.055
(0.183) (0.186) (0.175)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.000 −0.124 0.067
(0.160) (0.154) (0.133)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.086 −0.035 −0.018
(0.140) (0.143) (0.129)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[1996,2000) −0.180 −0.034 0.325+
(0.171) (0.195) (0.183)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[1996,2000) −0.158 0.038 0.264+
(0.131) (0.140) (0.140)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.161 −0.007 −0.124
(0.157) (0.152) (0.132)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.211 −0.076 −0.078
(0.140) (0.143) (0.129)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[2000,2004) −0.013 −0.140 0.245
(0.168) (0.194) (0.179)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[2000,2004) −0.036 −0.142 0.324*
(0.129) (0.139) (0.138)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[2004,2008) −0.105 −0.074 0.121
(0.165) (0.157) (0.137)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[2004,2008) −0.026 −0.335* 0.297*
(0.141) (0.144) (0.130)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[2004,2008) −0.083 −0.277 0.377*
(0.167) (0.191) (0.180)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.014 −0.399** 0.403**
(0.127) (0.137) (0.137)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[2008,2012) −0.020 −0.067 0.026
(0.201) (0.181) (0.162)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.160 −0.182 0.040
(0.149) (0.148) (0.137)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[2008,2012) −0.165 −0.185 0.466*
(0.175) (0.195) (0.185)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.193 −0.286* 0.162
(0.132) (0.140) (0.142)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.014 0.036 −0.070
(0.184) (0.168) (0.153)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[2012,2016] −0.029 −0.190 0.180
(0.141) (0.140) (0.131)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[2012,2016] −0.462** −0.033 0.584***
(0.165) (0.183) (0.177)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.033 −0.378** 0.352*
(0.127) (0.135) (0.138)
Num.Obs. 45278 45278 45278
AIC 52978.1 52450.1 58592.7
BIC 53693.2 53165.1 59307.8
Log.Lik. −26407.061 −26143.026 −29214.367
RMSE 0.45 0.44 0.48
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
Table 1.4: Binary logit regressions: issue position (log-odds).
Redistribution Equal R&C CH-foreign State intervention
(Intercept) 0.151 −0.447*** −1.053***
(0.094) (0.095) (0.106)
income[3k,5k] 0.002 −0.022 −0.112
(0.103) (0.105) (0.116)
income[5k,7k] −0.100 0.099 −0.329**
(0.109) (0.111) (0.125)
income[7k,9k] −0.362** 0.158 −0.220
(0.126) (0.128) (0.145)
incomemore_9k −0.650*** 0.217 −0.400*
(0.134) (0.136) (0.157)
educationfcomp_school 0.162 −0.307** 0.246*
(0.110) (0.111) (0.121)
educationfhigher_voctraining −0.180 0.330* −0.128
(0.137) (0.136) (0.160)
educationfmaturity −0.011 0.952*** −0.016
(0.169) (0.173) (0.188)
educationfUniversity 0.100 1.276*** 0.347*
(0.129) (0.137) (0.139)
annee_cat[1996,2000) −0.023 −0.154 0.015
(0.106) (0.108) (0.120)
annee_cat[2000,2004) −0.105 −0.003 0.397***
(0.104) (0.106) (0.116)
annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.051 0.167 0.508***
(0.108) (0.110) (0.119)
annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.033 0.079 0.696***
(0.124) (0.125) (0.132)
annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.123 −0.076 0.599***
(0.118) (0.119) (0.127)
genderfemale 0.238*** 0.146*** 0.110***
(0.018) (0.019) (0.020)
age_cat[30,45) 0.046 0.069* −0.068*
(0.031) (0.032) (0.033)
age_cat[45,65) −0.003 0.014 −0.111***
(0.031) (0.032) (0.033)
age_cat[65,99] −0.293*** −0.141*** −0.361***
(0.034) (0.035) (0.036)
religionAthée 0.133*** 0.321*** 0.179***
(0.029) (0.030) (0.030)
religionAutre −0.035 0.324*** 0.163**
(0.053) (0.055) (0.055)
religionCatholique chrétien 0.004 −0.005 0.110*
(0.055) (0.055) (0.056)
religionProtestant 0.017 0.004 −0.015
(0.020) (0.021) (0.022)
regionLSuisse italienne 0.667*** −0.194*** 0.142***
(0.036) (0.035) (0.036)
regionLSuisse romande 0.161*** 0.335*** 0.218***
(0.021) (0.022) (0.022)
married −0.087*** −0.081*** 0.067**
(0.021) (0.022) (0.023)
house_ownership −0.010 −0.078*** −0.135***
(0.019) (0.020) (0.021)
income[3k,5k] × educationfcomp_school 0.058 0.119 0.028
(0.078) (0.080) (0.083)
income[5k,7k] × educationfcomp_school 0.033 0.341*** −0.027
(0.093) (0.094) (0.100)
income[7k,9k] × educationfcomp_school −0.076 0.102 −0.052
(0.135) (0.138) (0.148)
incomemore_9k × educationfcomp_school 0.123 0.189 0.188
(0.156) (0.157) (0.169)
income[3k,5k] × educationfhigher_voctraining 0.028 −0.022 −0.220+
(0.116) (0.116) (0.124)
income[5k,7k] × educationfhigher_voctraining 0.209+ −0.035 0.023
(0.113) (0.113) (0.120)
income[7k,9k] × educationfhigher_voctraining 0.170 −0.058 −0.146
(0.121) (0.121) (0.129)
incomemore_9k × educationfhigher_voctraining 0.026 −0.109 −0.197
(0.127) (0.127) (0.138)
income[3k,5k] × educationfmaturity 0.044 −0.258+ 0.129
(0.132) (0.133) (0.138)
income[5k,7k] × educationfmaturity 0.169 −0.037 0.217
(0.129) (0.130) (0.135)
income[7k,9k] × educationfmaturity 0.278* −0.140 0.117
(0.135) (0.137) (0.142)
incomemore_9k × educationfmaturity 0.230+ −0.275* 0.074
(0.137) (0.139) (0.147)
income[3k,5k] × educationfUniversity 0.189+ −0.109 −0.104
(0.100) (0.104) (0.103)
income[5k,7k] × educationfUniversity 0.181+ −0.165+ −0.075
(0.095) (0.098) (0.097)
income[7k,9k] × educationfUniversity 0.173+ −0.152 −0.073
(0.098) (0.102) (0.101)
incomemore_9k × educationfUniversity 0.088 0.012 −0.094
(0.098) (0.102) (0.103)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.047 0.143 0.059
(0.118) (0.121) (0.133)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.000 0.162 0.273+
(0.124) (0.127) (0.142)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.047 0.195 0.110
(0.143) (0.147) (0.165)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.338* 0.228 0.087
(0.153) (0.157) (0.181)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.074 0.232+ 0.018
(0.117) (0.119) (0.128)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.111 0.267* 0.067
(0.123) (0.125) (0.138)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.236+ 0.317* −0.060
(0.141) (0.144) (0.159)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.364* 0.357* −0.149
(0.149) (0.152) (0.172)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.060 0.093 −0.042
(0.121) (0.123) (0.132)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.153 −0.007 0.108
(0.127) (0.129) (0.141)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.216 0.168 −0.100
(0.143) (0.147) (0.161)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[2004,2008) 0.331* 0.099 −0.116
(0.149) (0.154) (0.172)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.101 0.087 −0.102
(0.140) (0.141) (0.149)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[2008,2012) −0.192 −0.040 0.212
(0.142) (0.143) (0.154)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[2008,2012) −0.149 0.017 0.237
(0.156) (0.158) (0.170)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.184 −0.017 0.165
(0.161) (0.164) (0.180)
income[3k,5k] × annee_cat[2012,2016] −0.162 −0.009 −0.105
(0.132) (0.133) (0.141)
income[5k,7k] × annee_cat[2012,2016] −0.188 −0.120 −0.055
(0.134) (0.136) (0.148)
income[7k,9k] × annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.208 −0.026 −0.153
(0.150) (0.152) (0.166)
incomemore_9k × annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.351* −0.103 0.032
(0.155) (0.157) (0.175)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[1996,2000) −0.211+ −0.219+ −0.136
(0.117) (0.120) (0.131)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[1996,2000) 0.078 0.173 0.203
(0.121) (0.120) (0.149)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[1996,2000) −0.018 −0.212 −0.072
(0.159) (0.163) (0.182)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[1996,2000) −0.290* −0.393** −0.076
(0.120) (0.127) (0.134)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[2000,2004) −0.081 −0.136 −0.202
(0.115) (0.116) (0.126)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.087 0.193 0.379**
(0.120) (0.121) (0.146)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[2000,2004) 0.077 −0.148 −0.079
(0.156) (0.160) (0.175)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[2000,2004) −0.289* −0.484*** 0.102
(0.118) (0.126) (0.131)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[2004,2008) −0.126 −0.199 −0.117
(0.122) (0.122) (0.132)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[2004,2008) −0.076 0.022 0.161
(0.122) (0.122) (0.148)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[2004,2008) −0.194 −0.108 0.098
(0.156) (0.161) (0.175)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[2004,2008) −0.446*** −0.365** 0.053
(0.117) (0.124) (0.129)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.075 0.029 −0.451**
(0.147) (0.146) (0.156)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.336** −0.014 0.100
(0.129) (0.127) (0.152)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[2008,2012) 0.150 −0.438** −0.041
(0.163) (0.165) (0.179)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[2008,2012) −0.050 −0.363** −0.081
(0.121) (0.128) (0.132)
educationfcomp_school × annee_cat[2012,2016] 0.003 0.197 −0.311*
(0.138) (0.138) (0.148)
educationfhigher_voctraining × annee_cat[2012,2016] −0.022 0.029 0.352*
(0.121) (0.121) (0.146)
educationfmaturity × annee_cat[2012,2016] −0.528*** −0.607*** 0.102
(0.152) (0.155) (0.171)
educationfUniversity × annee_cat[2012,2016] −0.210+ −0.276* 0.221+
(0.117) (0.124) (0.129)
Num.Obs. 52418 52434 52537
AIC 71130.4 69248.4 64698.3
BIC 71857.5 69975.5 65425.6
Log.Lik. −35483.212 −34542.213 −32267.140
RMSE 0.49 0.48 0.46
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Figure 1.4: Average marginal contrasts results from multilevel probit model: party support

Figure 1.5: Average marginal contrasts results from multilevel probit regressions: political leaning

Figure 1.6: Average marginal contrasts results from multilevel probit regressions: issue position
Table 1.5:

Model selection: 12 clusters model
Cluster L² L2 bootstrap p -2LL Diff -2LL Diff bootstrap p Entropy R²
1-Cluster 14058.41 0.000 NA NA 1.0000
2-Cluster 12111.01 0.000 1947.3954 0.000 0.6441
3-Cluster 11173.20 0.006 937.8165 0.000 0.6299
4-Cluster 10932.57 0.060 240.6254 0.000 0.6043
5-Cluster 10708.48 0.192 224.0898 0.000 0.5925
6-Cluster 10584.08 0.234 124.4011 0.000 0.5788
7-Cluster 10467.74 0.324 116.3432 0.000 0.5933
8-Cluster 10389.37 0.356 78.3647 0.000 0.6009
9-Cluster 10318.10 0.332 71.2689 0.000 0.6084
10-Cluster 10259.10 0.290 59.0079 0.004 0.6058
11-Cluster 10208.58 0.264 50.5185 0.014 0.6035
12-Cluster 10160.79 0.264 47.7854 0.034 0.6107
13-Cluster 10114.68 0.268 46.1100 0.066 0.6293

Figure 1.7: Variables chosen as indicators in the Latent class model for 1999: descriptive statistics